PSX 2018’s Cancellation Points to a 2019 Arrival for PlayStation 5

 What’s even more of a surprise, and is the most intriguing part of Layden’s statement, is the idea that they don’t have enough content to warrant PlayStation Experience this year. – “[W]e wouldn’t have enough to bring people all together in some location in North America to have that event.”This statement is an extraordinary tip of Sony’s hand as to their 2019 plans.

While there is a deluge of excellent third party content on the immediate horizon in the first quarter of 2019, Layden is pretty much confirming here that first-party development on PlayStation 4 titles has slowed; thus the lack of new content for them to show. And while the release calendar is loaded with third party games in the first quarter of 2019, that release calendar starts to look barren when we start getting past the first half of the year.

In my many years of covering the gaming industry, I have seen this situation happen time and time again. When that river of content starts to dry up on a release calendar for a console, it means one thing: a new console is on the way.

PlayStation 5 will launch in 2019.

Layden’s statement that Sony didn’t have enough to show is a huge implication that PlayStation 5 will be launching soon. The drought of titles on release calendars past Q2 2019 is a form of evidence – a symptom of the new console’s impending arrival.

We think that the indications are pretty clear: PlayStation 5 will debut in 2019.

There’s also further evidence that points to a 2019 PlayStation 5 launch.

Lost amidst the post E3 2018 frenzy was a  report by WCCFTECH (quoting the China Times) that stated that semi-conductor manufacturer TSMC had started production of the new AMD GPU chipsets.

“Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC has just confirmed that the mass production of their 7nm process node has just begun. The 7nm process would be used in new products which include orders from AMD too, who will be using the process to leverage their upcoming GPU and CPU hardware.”

The report goes on to state that TSMC would also begin production of AMD’s next CPU architecture as well.

The importance of this report becomes even more apparent when we go back to a leak from Forbes on June 12th of 2018, which stated that AMD had created its next GPU design specifically for Sony’s PlayStation 5 console.

“Speaking to industry sources this week under conditions of anonymity, I’ve learned that the PS5 will use both AMD’s Zen and Navi graphics architectures. What isn’t clear is whether the PS5 will incorporate a beefy SoC (system on a chip) or use separate Ryzen and Navi-based components.”

This fascinating article goes on to explain that two-thirds of AMD’s development staff went in to creating PlayStation 5’s innards, which negatively impacted other projects at the company.

AMD’s newest generation of 7nm CPU and GPU’s are now in mass production.

AMD’s involvement with the PlayStation 5, as well as Microsoft’s next generation machine currently known as Scarlett, is backed up by AMD’s CEO Lisa Su in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, where she discusses helping both companies with their “secret sauce” for their upcoming consoles.

Tying these elements together creates a clear picture that Sony is pushing ahead with PlayStation 5 development, and Layden’s admission that there isn’t enough to show in order to host PlayStation Experience this year is emblematic of this.

I know what many of you are thinking – what about the remaining big four titles that Sony showcased at E3 2018? Death Stranding, The Last of Us: Part 2, Ghosts of Tsushima?

All three of those titles will most definitely be crossover titles with PlayStation 5. In the case of The Last of Us: Part 2, it’s very likely that the demo showcased at E3 2018 was already running on an approximation of PlayStation 5 hardware, and not on PlayStation 4 Pro, as has been the natural assumption. In other words – we’ve already seen a PlayStation 5 game in action.

Ellie contemplates her future as a part of a PS5 launch title.

There is also another factor that leads us to believe in a 2019 launch for the PlayStation 5 – the arrival of the titans!

Just this week, Google announced their entry into the gaming arena with an all-streaming platform currently called Project Stream. This was a move that our sources here at NerdBacon told us would be happening; however Google will not be alone: Apple and possibly Amazon are also preparing similar gaming platforms that will offer a serious challenge to the very idea of a traditional console.

As each new competitor arrives in the gaming arena, each of the big three console manufacturers scrambling to draw their proverbial lines in the sand in order to keep consumers engaged with their brand, and prevent them from adopting competing products from these titans.

Like a great Greek titan, Google has thrown themselves into the gaming market.

Third party developers and publishers will also be forced to choose which side they want to be on in this coming console war, and the world’s largest gaming publisher, EA, has already decided that they will offer their own streaming service with EA Origin Access Premiere.

And of course, Sony’s two current competitors, Nintendo and Microsoft, are already busy working on next generation platforms of their own.

Nintendo is busy finalizing the development of a mid-generation upgrade to the Nintendo Switch to release in the first half of 2019, which we are referring to as the Nintendo Switch Pro. As we first reported in August, the Switch Pro will feature a custom NVIDIA GPU based off their Pascal architecture which will place its performance somewhere around the equivalent of the Geforce GTX 1050 – GTX 1060.

Less than a year removed from the release of the Xbox One X, Microsoft admitted during their E3 2018 keynote that they were already hard at work on their next generation of Xbox consoles, as well as a new streaming service. Since then we have learned that there will be multiple versions of this new Xbox generation, currently known as Scarlett. Reports have confirmed that one version of Scarlett will be a traditional console; however, one sku will be a streaming only version that eschews physical media, but delivers full next generation gaming performance at a fraction of the price.

What surprises will Microsoft have in store for us at X018?

Last week, Microsoft surprisingly announced that they would be holding a huge  Xbox fan festival in Mexico City this November. The company is promising that X018, November 10th-11th, will feature a number of announcements and surprises. With Google throwing their hat into the gaming ring with Project Stream, it’s not out of the question to believe that Microsoft will give us at least a tiny glimpse into their next generation plans.

While ideally, Sony would like to wait as long as possible to pull the trigger on releasing the PS5 until spring of 2020 at the latest, the market is now becoming much more crowded and competitive. Sony may have no other option but to strike first, and ensure that PlayStation 5 is the first next generation system out on the market. This means launching in 2019.

My expectations are that they will hold an event in the early part of the second quarter (most likely April) to announce the PlayStation 5, with a huge blowout to occur at E3 2019, and a release to follow later in the year.

Of course, that is just my expectation on what Sony’s timeline will be in regards to cluing the general public in on their plans, based on the evidence presented above.

Whatever the PlayStation 5 timeline ends up being, one thing is clear: the stakes have never been higher for Sony. 2019 will represent the most massive shift that the gaming industry has ever seen. The last great console war – no, the last great platform war has already begun.